In the ongoing confrontation between the European Union and Russia, the Republic of Moldova occupies a critical—though often overlooked—position. While not as militarily pivotal as Ukraine, Moldova’s struggle is no less consequential: it is a contest over national orientation and the future of the European order. Moldova’s plural identity makes it especially vulnerable to Russian interference, complicating its EU accession process and straining internal cohesion.
The country’s trajectory mirrors the broader dilemma facing postSoviet states still defining themselves amid renewed geopolitical rivalry between East and West. Moldova’s future will depend on the decisions of its leaders and electorate, the course of the war in Ukraine, and the EU’s readiness to honour its commitment to membership. The 28 September 2025 parliamentary elections will reveal whether Moldova’s leadership retains a popular mandate to pursue the European path.
This policy brief outlines key aspects of the current situation and sets out how the EU can help safeguard the integrity of Moldova’s upcoming elections and support its pro-European trajectory amid heightened geopolitical risk.
Content :
- Introduction
- Moldova at a crossroads
- Electoral dynamics
- Territory, history and identity
- Building effective institutions
- Rebooting the economy
- Neutrality under pressure
- The Transnistria threat
- Ending energy dependence
- Rewiring of Moldovan trade ties
- Russian influence and hybrid threats
- Moldova’s EU accession path
- EU Moldova partnership
- Recommendations for EU action
- Outlook
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